The ongoing resurge of Covid-19 will peak this week and turn downward, but Korea may face another “big wave” in October and November, a top quarantine advisor to the government said on Monday.

Jung Ki-suck, head of the National Advisory Committee on Infectious Disease Crisis Response, predicted so at a committee meeting. He noted that the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) had made a similar estimate based on mathematical modeling.

Korea's daily Covid-19 cases fell for the fifth consecutive day Monday.

The country added 59,046 new Covid-19 infections, including 406 from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 22,299,377, the KDCA said. Daily infections fell below the 100,000 level for the first time in six days, with cases steadily declining since Wednesday. Monday's tally is lower than the 62,056 from a week ago and 68,594 a month ago.

The country reported 65 new Covid-19 deaths, bringing the death toll to 26,109, the KDCA said. The fatality rate stood at 0.12 percent.

New infections showed a decline for the second day on Monday, raising cautious optimism that the latest virus wave may have passed its peak.

Since the first local confirmation of the Covid-19 virus on Jan. 20, 2020, the country has gone through multiple major waves of the virus. The latest wave came during the height of the summer vacation season, fueled by the highly transmissible omicron subvariant BA.5 and the eased virus curbs.

“I really hope my prediction will prove wrong, but another massive could hit the country again in late autumn or early winter,” Jung, a professor of respiratory medicine at Hallym University, said. “Around October or November, there will come a time when most Koreans’ immunity falls simultaneously.”

Pointing out that the ongoing Omicron wave that hit the peak in March has infected about 18 million Koreans, Jung said, “People infected at the time will see their immunity disappear in six months. As early as September or December at the latest, most Koreans’ immunity will hit the bottom level.”

Considering all these factors, the government should prepare for such a situation by strengthening the healthcare system, especially the emergency room system, reflecting on the medical situation, he said.

June also expressed the view that the nation would manage Covid-19 like influenza in the future.

“Few people are hospitalized because of influenza. Likewise, we don’t need to hospitalize so many Covid-19 patients as we now. That’s because Covid-19 has considerably weakened, and oral treatments have appeared,” he said. “I hope Covid-19 will also move that way and see it is doing so.”

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