Mathematicians predicted that the number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases per day will drop to 50,000 in two weeks as the pandemic resurgence has turned into a declining phase.

According to a report from the Covid-19 mathematical modeling task force, an Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology research team conducted a study that showed the number of new confirmed cases, which was 85,484 on Wednesday, will decrease by 5,484 to 61,779 on Sept. 14 and again to 51,780 on Sept. 21.

The research team recently estimated the R0, or an estimated reproductive rate of how many people may contract the virus from one infected person, during the past week as 0.83. and stressed that if the R0 falls to 0.6, the number of confirmed cases will decrease to 37,295 after two weeks, and if it decreases to 0.4, the number of cases will decrease to 26,464.

The research team also predicted that the number of new daily severe cases would decrease from 52 on Wednesday to 44 on Sept. 14 and again to 37 by Sept. 21.

However, the government stressed that the actual number of confirmed cases may vary depending on the quarantine situation during the holiday and stressed that these predictions do not reflect the amount of movement during the Chuseok holiday and the increase in face-to-face gatherings.

Other Covid-19 mathematical model studies also expected a continued decline in daily Covid-19 cases.

On Thursday, the daily cases fell to the lowest for a Thursday figure in seven weeks.

Korea added 72,646 Covid-19 infections, including 229 cases from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 23,864,560, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said.

The nation also reported 64 more Covid-19 deaths, raising the death toll to 27,313. The fatality rate stood at 0.12 percent.

The number of severe cases fell below 500 for the first time in 16 days after the KDCA confirmed 493 critically ill patients, down 28 from the previous day.

The government has urged citizens not to lower their guard against the virus during the Chuseok holiday.

The government had stressed that it plans to operate a total of 6,000 one-stop medical institutions during the Chuseok holiday and at least 700 one-stop medical institutions on Chuseok Day on Saturday this week to prepare for any additional outbreaks.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo had urged people to minimize private gatherings and wear masks in indoor public places during the holiday.

"In the past, the number of confirmed cases tended to increase after the holidays, when the amount of movement increases," Han said. "We urge you to minimize the size and time of meetings and strictly follow daily quarantine rules such as wearing a mask, washing hands, and periodic ventilation."

According to the KDCA, about 44.66 million among 52 million Koreans have been fully vaccinated. In addition, about 33.57 million people had received their first booster shots, and 7.28 million had their second booster shots.