The growth of emerging pharmaceutical markets, including China and India, will likely continue to push up demand for generic drugs.
Professor Lim Hyun-ja임현자 of University of Saskatchewan, Canada, made these and other points in an article contributed to the latest issue of “Insight,” published by Korea Health Industry Development Institute한국보건산업진흥원(KHIDI).
The preference for low-priced generics by "pharmerging market" -- emerging market of the pharmaceutical industry that show a sharp increase in demand for medicines as their economies began to develop -- is changing the market trends of medical products, Prof. Lim said.
“The market share of generics would increase 27 percent in 2012 to 36 percent in 2017 thanks to the growth of the pharmerging market. The demands for generics in all regions except the North America and Europe have surpassed those of original drug,” Lim said. “The Latin American countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, would develop and produce their generics to increase their market shares. The demands in the U.S. and Canada have also been on the gradual rise because of increase in original drugs’ prices.”
Prof. Lim said the market growth for generics would become even more noticeable thanks to the influence of China and India where medical supplies markets are expanding rapidly.
Lim noted China, which accounts for 46 percent of the pharmerging market, is pushing to provide insurance benefits to 90 percent or more of its people through healthcare reform, as well as drastically replenishing large hospitals.
“China will likely continue to take the lead in the growth of the pharmerging market thanks mainly to its rapid population aging,” Professor Lim said. “The demand for generic drugs will keep growing in other Asian countries, too, including India and Pakistan where the governments are expanding insurance benefits to their people.”
The pharmaceutical industry expert predicted the growth rate in advanced countries would slow down while the pharmerging markets continue to growth rapidly. Lim said the importance of the pharmerging market would grow because the patents of original medical supplies would expire and European markets record negative growth.
“Market growth in the U.S., Japan, England, German, France, Italy, and Spain is expected to slow down from 2015-2018 because of patent expiration and other reasons,” Lim said. “Competition is intensifying in the global market of medical supplies, centering on the pharmerging markets of Asia and Latin America.”
As major pharmerging markets, experts cite China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, and Thailand. The market is forecast to growth 8-11 percent annually from 2017-2018.