Eradicating Covid-19 on a global level may be more difficult than exterminating smallpox but easier than polio, according to a recent study.
The study, led by Professor Nick Wilson of Otago University in New Zealand and published in BMJ Global Health, reached such a conclusion by analyzing and comparing the possibilities of eradicating the three infectious diseases from technical, socio-political, and economic aspects.
The research team said the eradication of Covid-19 would become possible if the world made concerted efforts through vaccination and public health measures to minimize massive financial and social damages.
The researchers defined “eradication” as reducing infections caused by specific factors to zero once and for all through deliberate efforts and compared the possibility of eradicating Covid-19 with smallpox and polio by using technological, social, political, and economic factors. Smallpox was declared eliminated in 1980, and two of the three polioviruses have been wiped out.
In addition to achieving herd immunity through vaccination, there are other ways of virus control. In the case of smallpox, eradication was achieved through ring vaccination. Establishing public health and social measures (PHSM), like wearing masks and social distancing was cited as another choice.
The research team gave three points each to 17 variables affecting the elimination of an infectious disease. Among such variables were a safe and effective use of vaccines, chances of getting lifetime immunity, influences of public health measures, management efficiency of government’s infection control messages, public and political concerns over infections’ economic and social impact, and public acceptance of infection controls.
Based on the three-point relative scale, the score for Covid-19 was 1.6, compared with 2.7 for smallpox and 1.5 for polio.
Major obstacles to eradicating Covid-19 included the public’s low acceptance of vaccination, the appearance of variants, vaccine nationalism, and lack of international cooperation to fight against unscientific attacks.
On the other hand, Covid-19 has advantages over the other two diseases -- global attention and massive investment. Also, public health and social measures will have stronger effects on Covid-19 than the other two diseases.
In conclusion, it will be possible to eradicate Covid-19 technically, as some Asian countries did in the early phase of the pandemic, the study said.
To do so, worldwide cooperation must be made either through WHO or a coalition of nations. While acknowledging the study is a preliminary process, the authors said the national health organizations need to officially examine whether it is possible or desirable to eliminate Covid-19.