Korea, one of the exemplary fighters against Covid-19, is now confused due to surging daily infections and the death toll in what is presumed to be the final stage of the pandemic.
The country reported an unprecedented 621,328 new virus cases on Thursday, breaking the previous record of 400,741 set just a day earlier by more than 220,000, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The two-day total reached 1,022,069, more than 500,000 per day.
Government officials and private experts sharply differed on why.
The quarantine authorities attributed the ongoing surge to a combination of factors – delayed reports of about 70,000 omitted, cases the previous day, and the discovery of many “hidden” cases as the government switched its detection system from polymerase chain reaction (PCR) rapid antigen test to faster but less accurate rapid antigen test.
Experts, however, were almost unanimous in citing one primary reason – the government’s premature relaxation of the social distancing system.
“This is due to a policy failure caused by eased restrictions,” said Choi Jae-wook, a preventive medicine professor at Korea University College of Medicine. “In the process, other factors might have exerted an influence, such as the spread of the stealth Omicron variant, abrupt change of testing system, and presidential electioneering.”
Professor Eom Joong-sik of Gachon University Gil Hospital agreed. “It was problematic that the government extended the business hours of service businesses. More importantly, the message of relaxing Covid-19 rules seemed to be too strong, pushing up new cases far faster and higher than expected.”
Noting that predictions will no longer matter, Eom said the daily tally could reach 1 million depending on the number of tests.
The government admitted its forecasting errors to an extent.
“The pace of spread is higher than expected, and the peak section may likely prolong somewhat,” said Lee Sang-won, head of the epidemiological study and analysis at the Central Quarantine Countermeasure Headquarters. “We will revise the prediction model by applying recent variables.”
Korea’s peak figure has already reached a level far excelling major countries. According to Our World in Data, the number of daily infections per 1 million people was 6,730 in Korea on Tuesday, higher than France’s 5,436 on Jan. 25, 2,681 in the U.K. on Jan. 15, 2,425 in the U.S. on Jan. 15, and 749 in Japan on Feb. 9.
If the current trend continues, the cumulative caseload will exceed 10 million next week, about 20 percent of the 51.6-million population. If other countries’ experiences are any guide, a country passes its peak when 20 percent of its population are infected.
However, experts warned against such an expectation.
“You should not expect that to happen,” Professor Choi said. “It is because we are willing to take the damage.”
Professor Eom also warned against optimism, saying, “The complacency based on the 20 percent infection theory is possible only when there is a braking device. Now that the spreading pace has exceeded the level, the minimal infection rate can rise further.”
Quarantine officials also braced for the worse situation while attempting not to lose optimism.
“If the peak comes according to our estimate, allowing us to respond to it within the prepared scope, the ongoing crisis will be the final major crisis in our anti-coronavirus fight,” said Son Young-rae, head of the social strategy team at the Central Disaster Management Headquarters.
Son also said about half of the daily death toll of 429 on Thursday, more than double Wednesday’s figure, was due to underlying diseases. Other officials have said the fatality rate of Covid-19 to the seasonal flu.
However, experts also refuted the optimistic analysis.
“It is nonsense to compare Covid-19 to seasonal flu, considering the drastic rise in death toll even under the relatively well-equipped healthcare system,” Professor Choi said.
Professor Eom said, “The daily death toll could rise to 1,000. The medical fields are now chaotic like a battlefield.”
The two experts cautioned against the scheduled adjustment of the social distancing system on Friday.
“It may be difficult to reverse the relaxing trend, but the government should appear to be retightening curbs if partially,” Choi said. “It must endure at least two or three weeks to minimize the death toll.”