Korea marked a record high Covid-19 death toll of 470 on Thursday, but experts predicted that if the government maintains the current quarantine restrictions, new virus cases could show a slow decline from now on.

According to a Covid-19 mathematical modeling task force, several research teams projected the number of confirmed cases would decrease.

An Ulsan Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) team, led by Professor Lee Chang-hyeong of the Department of Mathematical Sciences, predicted that the number of new confirmed cases would fall to 337,741 on March 30 and 325,321 on April 6 by reflecting the effect of the recent one-week distancing policy.

Considering that 490,881 new confirmed cases occurred in Korea on Wednesday, the UNIST team's prediction shows that the country may see 117,140 fewer cases after one week and 138,560 fewer cases after two weeks.

Choi Sun-hwa, a researcher at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, projected even a smaller number of new confirmed cases than the prediction of Professor Lee's team. Choi said that the number of locally confirmed cases, excluding imported ones, could decrease to 293,754 on April 6 and 186,437 on April 20.

Professor Jeong Eun-ok of the Mathematics Department at Konkuk University, while agreeing that cases would drop soon, predicted that the number of severe cases would increase to 1,281 after two weeks and 1,290 after three weeks.

However, the quarantine authorities said it was still too early to judge whether and when the pandemic would peak off.

"A further analysis of situations this week can tell whether the number of confirmed cases would continue to decline," Ministry of Health and Welfare Spokesman Son Young-rae said.

An epidemiological expert expressed concerns about the high death toll, which usually appears two or three weeks after a surge in new cases.

Eom Joong-sik, an infectious disease professor at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, predicted that the number of Covid-19 deaths could jump twice higher shortly.

"We are approaching the peak of severe patients and deaths tied to Covid-19," Professor Eom said. "I expect the daily death toll to reach 1,000 anytime soon before plateauing at 500-600 for two to three weeks."

Eom noted that the current death toll reflected the period when there were 200,000 confirmed cases per day.

However, government officials attributed the rise in deaths to the underlying health problems of Covid-19 patients.

"The cumulative fatality rate remains low at 0.13 percent, and the growth rate of severe cases has also slowed relative to the rise in infections," Son said.

On Thursday, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) confirmed 395,598 new Covid-19 cases, raising the cumulative caseload to 10,822,836.

Critically patients stood at 1,081, down three from the previous day.

The KDCA predicted that severely ill patients could rise to 2,000 in a week or two, lower than the experts’ forecast of 2,500-2,700.

Korea is experiencing the worst wave of pandemics, surpassing the grim milestone of 10 million infections earlier this week. Nearly 9 million cases have been reported since early February. The daily caseload surged to an all-time high of 621,205 last Thursday.

The spread of the virus is feared to continue unabated amid relaxed social distancing rules. Earlier this week, the government eased some of its virus-related regulations to support retail and service sectors bearing the brunt of the pandemic's financial impact.

Health authorities warned that the "stealth omicron" could continue to fuel a surge in infections despite earlier projections that the current wave would soon peak. The subvariant is known to be more transmissible than the omicron variant.

The government has started taking reservations for vaccinating children aged 5-11. Parents can make a reservation for a Covid-19 shot starting Thursday, and vaccinations will begin next Thursday nationwide.

However, only 36.1 percent of parents showed a willingness to have their children vaccinated, with 60.5 percent expressing no such intentions, according to a government survey, reflecting deep-rooted concerns and distrust in vaccines.

The country has provided booster shots to 32.48 million people. The number of fully vaccinated people came to 44.46 million, accounting for 86.6 percent of the total population, the KDCA said.