A renowned epidemiological expert said Thursday that the peak of the Covid-19 resurgence might come earlier than expected, but the maximum daily tally would be lower than the estimation in the original worst-case scenario.

"Based on various shreds of evidence, I think the country will not see a daily caseload of 300,000 as some initially expected," said Professor Chung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gacheon University College of Medicine during a meeting organized by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Still, a significant number of confirmed cases will continue to occur, and the peak will come in one or two weeks, Chung added. Previously, the KDCA and some experts predicted that the epidemic would peak after mid-August, and there might be up to 300,000 confirmed cases per day.

"What experts predicted two or three weeks ago was a near-worst-case scenario," Chung said.

He added that the epidemic's scale might be slightly smaller than expected based on more solid evidence.

Chung attributed his relatively optimistic prediction to higher participation in the second booster shot than expected, which helped reduce the number of infected people, the weaker-than-expected transmission power of the BA.2.75 Omicron subvariant, and that a lot of Koreans, unlike some other countries, were infected during the initial Omicron wave.

However, Professor Jeong emphasized that it is difficult to make accurate predictions based on data because the current Omicron wave is simultaneously taking place worldwide. Therefore, it is more important to accurately predict the number of critically ill patients and secure enough beds than the number of confirmed cases.

Chung supported the government's decision not to reinstate a stronger quarantine measure.

"The quarantine policy for the past two and a half years has been the product of experience and sacrifice," Chung said. "Until the Omicron pandemic in March, quarantine officials implemented policies to contain the spread and reduce the number of infected people, but after Omicron, it has become virtually impossible to stop the spread."

As a result, Chung added that the quarantine policy paradigm has completely changed.

Chung stressed that since the Omicron pandemic, the policy has changed to allow the spread to some extent but to reduce the damage as much as possible.

"Although the effect of social distancing is evident, the size of the effect varies depending on the time and period, the type of mutant virus," Chung said. "From the time the Omicron mutation appeared, the effect of strong social distancing was limited."

Although strong social distancing reduces the peak size and delays the peak period, it is time to consider whether or not the small business owners and the self-employed have to bear serious losses to achieve this effect, Chung added.

KDCA Commissioner Peck Kyong-ran also said that quarantine officials are working hard to allow patients easy access to drugs during the 'autonomous quarantine' policy.

"We are continuing efforts to expand prescriptions," Peck said. "Concerns about Covid-19 treatment interactions with other drugs are a challenge for medical staff, but we are preparing various materials for medical staff to refer to more easily."

On Thursday, the KDCA confirmed 88,384 new virus cases, including 425 imported cases, raising the cumulative caseload to 19,535,242.

The latest tally is down from the previous day's 100,285, the highest in more than three months.

The death toll came to 24,957, up 25 from the previous day, with a fatality rate of 0.13 percent. Critically ill patients also increased from 177 to 196.

According to the agency, about 44.64 million among 52 million Koreans have been fully vaccinated. In addition, about 33.44 million people had received their first booster shots, and 5.34 million had their second booster shots.