The ongoing Covid-19 resurgence will likely decline this week or next, but the number of severe cases and deaths could continue to increase for two to three more weeks, officials said Tuesday.

"As the pace of the recent epidemic slows, there is a chance that it will turn into a downtrend this or next week," said Im Sook-young, a senior official at the Central Disease Control Headquarters. "However, it is difficult to accurately predict the rate and magnitude of the decline after the epidemic's peak."

The government believes that it will probably decrease gradually, Im added.

Last week, the average number of confirmed cases was 127,000, an increase of 4.8 percent from the previous week. The infection reproduction index (R0) was 1.06, down 0.12 from 1.18 the previous week, but remained above 1 for eight consecutive weeks.

Noting that the index has slightly decreased, Im said the increase in the number of confirmed cases has reached its peak and would soon slow down.

Health officials had predicted that the epidemic could peak at an average of 200,000 daily confirmed cases in late August by combining the forecasts of several experts. Im stressed that the current resurgence is progressing within the forecasted range.

However, even if the number of confirmed cases decreases, the number of severe cases and deaths may continue increasing for the time being. Health officials predict that the number of severe cases and deaths to peak in early September at 800-900 and 100-140, respectively.

"There is a time lag between the trends of new virus cases and death and severe cases," Im said. "Therefore, severe cases and deaths may increase slightly after two or three weeks."

Korea's daily Covid-19 cases surged on Tuesday, ending the declining trend in the previous five days.

The country added 150,258 new Covid-19 infections, including 406 from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 22,449,475, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.

The country reported 52 new Covid-19 deaths, bringing the death toll to 26,161, the KDCA said. The fatality rate stood at 0.12 percent.

The government evaluated the weekly risk level of Covid-19 as moderate for the Seoul metro region and high for the rest of the country for the third consecutive week.

"The total number of confirmed cases, the number of confirmed cases for those over 60, and severe cases and deaths continue to increase," Im said. "Notably, there are concerns about the burden of medical response capacity due to the increase in confirmed cases among those ages 60 and older outside the greater Seoul area."

Last week's analysis also showed that the detection rate of BA.5, the Omicron subvariant, the current dominant strain, surpassed 90 percent.

According to health officials, the detection rate for BA.5 last week was 93.8 percent, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous week (87.9 percent).

The country also confirmed 21 additional BA.2.75 cases – seven local cases and 14 imported cases – last week, increasing the total caseload of the subvariant to 76 cases.

According to the KDCA, about 44.66 million among 52 million Koreans have been fully vaccinated. In addition, about 33.53 million people had received their first booster shots, and 6.92 million had their second booster shots.

Copyright © KBR Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution prohibited