Neuronox, the botulinum toxin developed by Medytox that is seeking China’s regulatory approval, will be worth about 600 billion won ($542.8 million) in the Chinese market, an analyst said Monday.
Neuronox is the brand name of Medytoxin in China. Medytox finished phase 3 clinical trials for Neuronox in China in June 2017.
Kim Tae-hee, an analyst at Mirae Asset Daewoo, estimated Neuronox’ value in China to be 623 billion won.
According to Kim, China’s botulinum toxin market is estimated at 100 billion won based on official data, and 200 billion won, on unofficial data.
Kim applied the success rate of winning a Chinese nod at 90 percent, operating profit rate at 60 percent, and average annual growth rate at 15 percent. Then, the calculation translated into 600 billion won worth value in Neuronox, Kim said.
“Neuronox is expected to win a license in China in the second quarter next year. We can expect to see some results,” Kim said. “There is no accurate data on the Chinese botulinum toxin market, but an unofficial market is said to be about two to three times larger than the official one.”
Kim emphasized that the assumption of 15 percent annual growth rate was conservative. Korean exports of botulinum toxin spiked by 290 percent in 2016 from the previous year, and 254 percent in 2017, he said.
“If Neuronox is released in the second half next year, there will be a big demand moving from the unofficial market to the official market. We can also expect that Medytox could sign a licensing deal to sell Neuronox in Europe and the U.S. in the second half,” Kim said.
Assuming that the Chinese botulinum toxin market grows 15 percent annually on average, the market volume is estimated to increase from 397 billion won in 2019 to 918 billion won in 2015, and to 2.4 trillion won in 2032, the analyst said.
During the same period, Medytox’ exports to China is forecast to increase from 2 billion won in 2019 to 103 billion won, and to 256 billion won in 2032, Kim added.
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