If the government maintains the current medical school enrollment quota, it will likely result in an oversupply of more than 3,000 doctors in 10 years, contrary to government claims of a 10,000-doctor shortage, according to a study published in an international journal.

The study said that if the government increases the number of medical students as planned now, the surplus workforce could expand to 11,000.

The Research Institute for Healthcare Policy under the Korean Medical Association (KMA) said Thursday that it has published a study on physician supply and demand titled “Expansion of medical school admission quotas in Korea: Is it really necessary?” in the SCIE-level international journal BMC Public Health.

The institute plans to discuss the findings in a healthcare policy forum soon.

The study was based on domestic and international research results and indicators that Korea has no shortage of doctors. The results criticized the government's unilateral and rapid expansion of medical students.

Based on Korean doctors' 289.5 working days per year, 118,393 doctors are needed in 2025, 130,394 in 2031, and 139,012 in 2035. Projecting supply and demand while maintaining the existing medical school enrollment quota of 3,058, there is a surplus of 926 physicians in 2025, 2,724 in 2031, and 3,161 in 2035.

According to the study, if the government increases the enrollment quota by 1,509 in 2025 and an additional 2,000 thereafter, it will result in a surplus of 4,052 in 2031 and 11,481 in 2035.

This is a far cry from the government's “10,000-doctor shortage in 2035” claim when it pushed for the quota increase for 2025. The institute pointed out that the number of working days for doctors should be underestimated by 265 days instead of the actual 289.5 days to produce results similar to the government's claim.

“The government’s unilateral physician supply-and-demand plan can hardly succeed. It must introduce a mid- to long-term supply and demand estimation model and methodology tailored to the Korean medical environment while continuing to discuss with medical providers and related organizations,” it said. “Based on this, periodic supply and demand estimation and long-term physician manpower policies should be implemented.”

“We expect the study’s publication in an international journal to serve as an opportunity to recognize the objectivity and credibility of our research data,” said Professor Moon Seok-kyun (of Chung Ang University College of Medicine), the institute’s deputy director who was the study’s lead author. “We hope that it will be used to improve government policies.”