Korean researchers presented evidence for early eradication strategies against cervical cancer through dynamic modeling, emphasizing the importance of strengthening vaccine and screening policies.

The National Cancer Center (NCC) announced on Thursday that a research team led by Professor Choi Kui-son of the Department of Health AI at the Graduate School of Cancer Studies analyzed cervical cancer screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies.

Their findings indicate that introducing high-risk HPV testing and achieving a 90 percent vaccination rate could lead to the early elimination of cervical cancer by 2034. However, maintaining current policies would push the eradication timeline to 2044, the study noted.

Cervical cancer is a leading female cancer, affecting approximately 600,000 women and causing about 340,000 deaths globally each year.

In November 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) formally adopted the “elimination of cervical cancer” goal at the World Health Assembly with unanimous agreement from all member states. The target is to achieve the following by 2030: a 90 percent HPV vaccination rate before the age of 15, a 70 percent cervical cancer screening rate among women aged 35 and 45, and 90 percent guaranteed access to patient treatment.

The research team conducted mathematical modeling reflecting HPV infection and cervical cancer incidence processes among approximately 26 million women in Korea through 2100. They analyzed a total of 36 strategies, including screening start age (20 or 25 years), screening interval (two, three, or five years), and test type (Pap smear or high-risk HPV test)

The results showed that maintaining the current HPV vaccination rate of 75 percent and the national cancer screening participation rate of 51.5 percent (biennial Pap smear screening for women aged 20 and older) would enable achieving the WHO elimination target (≤four cases per 100,000 women) by 2044.

The research team stated that achieving the WHO's targets of 90 percent HPV vaccination coverage and 70 percent screening coverage could advance the eradication timeline to 2040. Furthermore, analysis suggests that shifting the screening method to high-risk HPV testing and achieving the WHO's 90 percent HPV vaccination rate and 70 percent screening rate targets could advance the eradication timeline by up to 10 years, to 2034.

“While the effects of HPV vaccination take decades to manifest, screening immediately reduces cancer incidence,” Professor Choi said. “A state-led national cancer screening policy is key to eradicating cervical cancer.”

NCC President Yang Han-kwang stated, “These research findings demonstrate that Korea can become a leading nation in cervical cancer elimination. The NCC will strive to share and disseminate Korea's excellent cancer management experience and strategies to other countries.”

The study results were published on Aug. 12 in the medical journal JAMA Network Open under the title, “Cervical Cancer Screening, HPV Vaccination, and Cervical Cancer Elimination.”